日期: 2024-07-14 17:21:21
王师傅，这位宏观地协调的电影导演、编辑和摄影师，以其对大片视频的精妙处理而著称。他在20世纪的电影史上扮演了一个重要角色，不仅在电影技术方面做出了突破，更通过其作品展现了深邃的人文关怀和独特的艺术风格。
第一段：王师傅的创造之路
从成长时期到成名后，王师傅始终保持其深厚的工作热情和对电影艺术的热爱。他的创作始于自己生活经历中所体会到的社会问题，通过电影这个可视化的工具来哀愁人间的难破不平之处。例如，在《红高粱》和《英雄本色》等经典作品中，王师傅以其深入人心的场景布置和独特的导演手法展现了那个时代对家族、性格与命运的深厚关系。
第二段：王师傅个人资料——直播间
近年，监视制作巨头如Youku和Tencent开始了对电影巨人的生态研究。一方面，这样的活动能够为公众提� Written in a clear and accessible style, this article describes how the Earth’s climate system is changing. It highlights key concepts and processes that are relevant for understanding global warming.
We start with an overview of energy flows on our planet—the solar radiation received from space drives all other physical processes on Earth. Most incoming solar radiation is reflected back to space, but some is absorbed by the surface and atmosphere, thereby causing warming. The Earth then emits heat in the form of thermal infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and various other trace constituents, absorb some portion of this outgoing energy and re-radiate it in all directions back towards Earth’s surface. This process is known as the greenhouse effect. It causes additional warming because while each GHG molecule individually contributes to a small fraction of total radiative forcing, together they make a significant contribution to warming (IPCC 2013).
Since pre-industrial times—approximately 1750 when human activities began to release large quantities of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere—atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased dramatically. This rise in GHGs has led to an enhanced greenhouse effect, with a resulting increase in global average surface temperatures (Figure 1).
A large fraction (approximately two-thirds) of human induced radiative forcing is due directly from carbon dioxide released since pre-industrial times. Another third is from other gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, with the remainder being mainly a result of tropospheric ozone formation and various kinds of aerosols (IPCC 2013).
While there have been fluctuations in global average surface temperatures during the past decades, these changes are small relative to those observed over longer timescales. Over the past two centuries, Earth’s average temperature has risen by about 0.8°C (about 1.5°F), with most of this increase occurring since 1975.
Global warming is not just an abstract phenomenon that impacts climate patterns around the world; it also affects our daily lives and well-being—a fact that has been increasingly highlighted over the past few years by extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes and heatwaves (IPCC 2 Written in a clear and accessible style, this article describes how the Earth’s climate system is changing. It highlights key concepts and processes that are relevant for understanding global warming.
We start with an overview of energy flows on our planet—the solar radiation received from space drives all other physical processes on Earth. Most incoming solar radiation is reflected back to space, but some is absorbed by the surface and atmosphere, thereby causing warming. The Earth then emits heat in the form of thermal infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and various other trace constituents, absorb some portion of this outgoing energy and re-radiate it in all directions back towards Earth’s surface. This process is known as the greenhouse effect. It causes additional warming because while each GHG molecule individually contributes to a small fraction of total radiative forcing, together they make a significant contribution to warming (IPCC 2013).
Since pre-industrial times—approximately 1750 when human activities began to release large quantities of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere—atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased dramatically. This rise in GHGs has led to an enhanced greenhouse effect, with a resulting increase in global average surface temperatures (Figure 1).
A large fraction (approximately two-thirds) of human induced radiative forcing is due directly from carbon dioxide released since pre-industrial times. Another third is from other gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, with the remainder being mainly a result of tropospheric ozone formation and various kinds of aerosols (IPCC 2013).
While there have been fluctuations in global average surface temperatures during the past decades, these changes are small relative to those observed over longer timescales. Over the past two centuries, Earth’s average temperature has risen by about 0.8°C (about 1.5°F), with most of this increase occurring since 1975.
Global warming is not just an abstract phenomenon that impacts climate patterns around the world; it also affects our daily lives and well-being—a fact that has been increasingly highlighted over the past few years by extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes and heatwaves (IPCC 2013).
The Earth’s climate system is complex and ever changing. Scientists use a variety of methods to study different aspects of the climate system in order to understand its functioning. Observations—such as those from satellites, weather balloons or ground-based stations—are made on a wide range of topics that include temperature trends over time, ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise. These observations are then used in conjunction with computer models that simulate the Earth’s climate system to determine how it will evolve over future decades or centuries (IPCC 2013).
Satellite data show a large increase in temperatures across the world from 2015-2017. This trend has continued into this year, as shown by recent data released on April 9th which indicate that global surface temperatures for January 2018 were around 1°C above pre-industrial levels (Figure 2).
Recent satellite measurements of atmospheric temperature have also increased during the past decade. This warming is primarily caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, which trap more outgoing infrared radiation and cause additional warming. Overall trends since 1970 show that temperatures are increasing at a rate faster than those seen during the 20th century (Figure 3).
Climate models used to predict future climate change rely on accurate data from past climates in order for them to produce reliable projections. The most widely used type of model is called an Earth System Model, which includes information about interactions between different parts of the climate system such as atmosphere-ocean coupling processes (IPCC 2013).
Earth system models can simulate a wide range of future scenarios based on different assumptions for how greenhouse gas emissions will evolve over time. These simulations allow us to examine potential impacts that could result from global warming, including changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise (IPCC 2 Market volatility is often triggered by events that don't have anything to do with market fundamentals—what economists call "irrational exuberance."
Investors typically react irrationally to new information, as demonstrated during the 1987 stock-market crash and in this week's volatility. One of the most important lessons we can learn from these episodes is that investor behavior doesn't change much even after a long period of market calm.
Furthermore, emotions don't necessarily disappear with time; they just manifest themselves differently. Investors who have experienced significant losses in one era may hold on to those biases for decades until the next crisis hits and reinforces them. That is why we need investors who are willing to take a long-term, disciplined approach during market turmoil.
In an earlier paper titled "Market Bubbles and Crashes," Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller discusses how emotion affects the market cycle:
"If people are not rational, there will be booms and busts even when markets are efficient in a theoretical sense because human irrationality is so pervasive that it can lead to wild swings of sentiment. It doesn't matter whether one adopts a Marxian or neo-classical view; emotionally driven behavior will always affect the market."
Market cycles have been characterized by bursting bubbles and ensuing panic selling, which tend to coincide with excessive exuberance in financial markets. Even if it's not possible for a single investor to predict these events accurately—and history suggests that isn't likely—we can learn from past market behavior to help reduce the chance of suffering losses during periods like this one.
Shiller provides an excellent framework with which we can analyze recurring bubble and crash cycles in markets: "When investors are irrationally exuberant, they tend to focus on recent good news (increasing stock prices) rather than disregard bad news (low interest rates). When investors are excessively pessimistic or fearful, the reverse tends to occur."
For example, consider how markets reacted in 1987 and today. Both were periods of extreme volatility—the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging nearly 23 percent on Oct. 19, 1 Written by Nina Smith (Economics) – December 3rd, 2015
The United Kingdom’s recent referendum vote in favor of leaving the European Union was largely driven by voters who felt disenfranchised by a system they considered to be unresponsive. For example, 64% of UK residents aged 18-24 voted to leave the EU compared with just 37% of those over the age of 50. This may reflect young people’s lack of faith in mainstream political parties that have governed their country for most of its post-war history, or it may also be evidence of an underlying disconnect between economic policy and public sentiment on issues such as immigration.
While the UK is not alone when it comes to voters who feel left behind by globalization, there are a few countries in the European Union that have been particularly hard hit during its 25-year history: Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (see chart above). These four nations were among the most rapidly expanding economies before the financial crisis but they are now struggling to adapt to structural shifts at both the domestic level – such as an aging workforce that is slowing labor market growth — and at the international level.
The good news for these countries is that many of their problems have been resolved by others in similar circumstances, most notably Germany (see chart below). In fact, it may be possible to predict some of the economic challenges faced by Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal today simply by looking back at what happened over two decades ago with East Germany.
East Germany was once home to one fifth of Germany’s entire population but following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it underwent a rapid transition from being part of the Soviet bloc — which included heavy industry and large agriculture sectors – to joining an increasingly market-oriented European Union. This was done with help from Germany’s “economic miracle” that had been taking place since its reunification in 1987, as well as massive government investments and programs designed to modernize the East German economy (see chart above).
The lesson for Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal is that their respective problems are not insurmountable. But rather than waiting for Germany or other EU members to offer aid, these countries should draw on its own history with reforms including: increasing flexibility of labor markets; investment in infrastructure, particularly transportation systems; measures to improve the productivity and competitiveness of their aging workforces; and strengthening trade ties by expanding exports.
To be sure there are important differences between East Germany and its successor countries today (such as Italy’s relatively lower rate of unemployment). But these nations would have benefited greatly from learning the lessons that came out of a successful economic transition in 1990, especially for those who need to understand how an economy can transform itself in just one generation.
For more information on EU integration and its impacts see:
- The Economic Consequences of European Integration by Paul Krugman
- The Eurozone Crisis Explained by Heather Allan
- Lessons from the East Germany Miracle by Jeffrey R. Young, Markus Brunnermeier and Dennis J. Snower
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has a program dedicated to supporting countries in Europe that have been negatively impacted by mass migration flows. Initiatives include providing aid for refugee camps, helping migrants integrate into their new homes as well as working with host communities on how best to welcome newcomers. To learn more about the UNFPA and its work see:
- United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) – www.unfpa.org
- Migration & Refugees Topics Page – www.unodc.org/topicspages/migrationrefugees/migrationrefugeesglobal/
The OECD Development Centre also offers a wealth of information on migration, including data and research:
- Global Issues and Migrants’ Wellbee by The OECD – www.oecd.org/migrantlivingstandards
